Technical Analysis Report
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Strong earnings from International Business Machines powered blue-chip stocks higher for the fourth-straight session, even as discouraging quarterly reports from other bellwethers kept the broader market flat.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1666
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The bounce off the 1650 MediumLevel is positive, so expect a new high, the 1672 SG2 levels are the resistance, but looking at Silver leading the move up can see the 1672 broken. There is also the overhead daily trendline cutting through under 1700
Elliott Wave: The daily overhead trendline could cause the price to retest support in the 1650 – 1630 area.
Silver: The 61.8% is 32.00 however the strong move up suggests higher ground is the come.
Oil WTI: 98
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: In terms of trading we should just let the price pattern play out further across the 100 as we need to work out from the high of 103+ on the 5th Jan is a bearish impulse wave developing or and ABC bullish corrective pattern that can retrace down to 95 but the 618% 97 – 9650 is more likely low for the retest back to 100 after this the pattern will become more clear, later in the week
Elliott Wave: We have a bearish count on our charts, however we still require the evidence of five waves down from the 5th Jan 103 high
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.72-
US Nickel: Last: 9.54+
US Zinc: Last: 0.90+
US Aluminium Last: 0.98+
Copper CFD: 374
Technical Analysis:
The corrective pattern dis corrected back from 380 to 372, but now we should expect more, a larger corrective pattern, bouncing around in the 380 – 365 SG2 range, before another move higher
US BHP resistance at 80 (TL8) and the Australian Materials sector XMJ will develop a corrective pattern across its MediumLevel 15000. It’s the small stocks (XSO) that are trending better
Forex
US Dollar: 80.30
Technical Analysis:
The reaction near 130 for the Euro is the top of a wave three with the corrective pattern wave four, then expecting a move up into wave five, the mirror opposite for the US Dollar into 80. We can also expect the pattern around 80 can get messy as there is always larger buyers and sellers at large numbers
EURUSD 1.2930
TradingLevels: Resistance 1.30 Support SG2 12865|12872|12880
Elliott Wave: Wave four corrective pattern under 1.30, expect a minimum three waves and a possible move to 12850 but the fire support is 12872 which is also the 38.2% retracement for the wave four
Trading Strategies: Don’t trade wave fours, wait for completion (abc) and probably long off the 12850
AUDUSD 1.0482
TradingLevels: 10472 SG2 was the target, the 105 is the midpoint target
Elliott Wave: Now in wave five expect a larger corrective at 105
Trading Strategies: The wave five trend up from the 104 is ending and there will be varies degrees of corrective patterns for a while.
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,711
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Expect a larger corrective pattern 12772 - 12800
Elliott Wave: The market is still impulsing upwards, no signs of a turn, however the numbers 12772, 12800 and the MajorLevel 13,000 will offer corrective patterns
Trading Strategies: US markets normally softer after the earnings season. Day Trades work off the 72 / 12720 support
S&P500 CFD: 1315
TradingLevels: Still impulsing higher, the resistance point is 1320. In the slightly bigger picture the Subgroup1 (SG1) 1310|1320|1330 if the price can develop support on top of SG1 1330 then it’s psychologically detached from the 1300, it can trade higher than 1330 but I’m talking about finding support. I mention this because if support is not found on 1330 then a larger correction back down across 1300, when the Dow reaches 12772/12800 then that should be the short term higher here
Elliott Wave: five small sub waves ending into SG1
Trading Strategies: Scalp the MicroLevels between each sublevel 1310 – 1320 – 1330, starting by using the support on 1310, looking for five waves between 1310 and 1320.
FTSE 100 CFD: 5751
TradingLevels: Support (72) 5720 targets of the 5772 and 5800
Elliott Wave: Should continue to impulse off the 5720
Trading Strategies: Day Trading, wait for support on the Midpoint 5750 and trade to 5772 and taking 30% at 5765
DAX CFD: 6425
Technical Analysis: Resistance MediumLevel 6500, expect a reaction testing support 6300
CFD Robo Mechanical Day Trading on the German market starting soon
(Founded over 400 years ago, Deutsche Borse's Frankfurt Stock Exchange is the world's third largest trading exchange, ranking only behind the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ. http://www.frankfurtstockexchange.de)
SPI CFD 4237
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The overhead trendline from the triangle pattern knocked the price back to support at 4200 and the second attempt is under way, this time the 4272 will come into play as the resistance this is SG2 4265|4272|4280 you need the 4272 as support for being long
Elliott Wave: Break up to 4272
Day Trading: SG1 4230 support trade long expect resistance at the Midpoint 4250 then SG2 4265|4272|4280 lock in part profit at 4265 then exit at 4272, when this level finds support then move back in. using the tradinglevels as price points to defend and attack and the volume to confirm the price action
Summary
China is closed this week.
Australian does a pattern relationship with Europe and the FSTE pattern is leading the Australian pattern up.
The Asian markets in general are looking very bullish, our smaller stocks are leading the way, so the trading ranges are better there than the larger caps.
The US markets continue to edge higher while the reporting season is on, after the price should soften, target 12800
The European markets are the catalyst and the ECB meeting on the 26th Jan is maintaining the trend in stock and currencies.
So in a nutshell our long positions should be fine until the end of the week, we have the ASX closed on Thursday and I may have the Friday off however the FX Charts will continue
Weekly Cycle, last week every day came in near perfect. Stronger closing on Friday creates the momentum for Monday being bullish, with profit tacking Tuesday morning and the trend resuming in the arvo. China is closed so look for the arvo lead in HK and N225
Trading Quote
There’s a difference between those who speculate for money, and those who trade — not to make a lot of money — but to protect their inventory. The hedgers are the third class and think more long term.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Monday, January 23, 2012
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
11:30am AUD PPI q/q 0.5% 0.6%
12:30am CAD Leading Index m/m 0.6% 0.8%
2:00am EUR Consumer Confidence -20 -21
5:00am GBP MPC Member Posen Speaks
Australian Corporate Calendar
Mirabela Nickel Ltd (MBN.AU) December Trading statement
Idea Cellular Ltd Q3 IND Earnings conference call
Macquarie Atlas Roads (MQA.AU) December Quarter Traffic
Mount Gibson Iron (MGX.AU)* Quarterly Activities Report
St Barbara Limited (SBM.AU) December Quarterly Report
Lynas Corporation (LYC.AU)* December Activities Report
Mirabela Nickel Ltd (MBN.AU) December Quarterly Activities Report
Panoramic Resources Limited December Quarterly Report
China Spring Festival 22 – 28 Holidays
The most important Chinese holiday is Chinese New Year, which is known in China as Spring Festival. The festival ushers in the lunar New Year and is the West’s Christmas and New Year’s Eve rolled into one. From sun up to sun down, this is a time when the whole country throws itself into celebrating and eating.
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
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